October 26Election Day
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Mayoral Race

2023 Election Results
0%25%50%75%100%Olivia ChowBradBradfordLyall SandersBahiraAbdulsalam
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
Analysis
Brad Bradford showed remarkable gains in support early in the election cycle, with polling in July showing as much as a twenty-fold improvement over his by-election showing in 2023. That put him within a competitive distance of incumbent Mayor Olivia Chow and was setting up the election for a serious fight after Labour Day. We had previously noted that there was a "John Tory shaped hole" in the election and that resources and media coverage would be available to a third mayoral candidate who could walk a moderate conservative line and communicate diplomatically. On July 29, former Minister Chris Alexander registered and took on that role, quickly garnering roughly 10% support according to some polls. It is our assessment that Alexander is largely drawing support from undecided voters and some share of Bradford's supporters, making his candidacy a major obstacle to the Bradford campaign's efforts to grow their base. On the current trajectory, we expect Olivia Chow to be re-elected mayor, though that trajectory is not guaranteed. Unforeseen events, crises, and major endorsements could still even the odds for Bradford.
Race Timeline
Jul 29, 2026ABC editorial by Lisa Raitt describes Alexander campaign as a risk to election with vote splitting
Jul 29, 2026Former Minister Chris Alexander joins mayoral race
Jul 14, 2026Brad Bradford holds press conference challenging top officials' response to shooting at Salsa on St. Clair
Jul 9, 2026Toronto Star article suggests Chris Alexander considering run for Mayor
Jul 8, 2026Bradford campaign announces it has raised $1.8 million
May 25, 2026Olivia Chow registered (incumbent)
Apr 30, 2026Brad Bradford registered

Ward 1 — Etobicoke North

2022 Election Results
0%25%50%75%100%VincentCrisantiKristianSantosAbrahamAbbeyAvtarMinhas
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
High Water Mark(Select recent or best results by candidates in any election)
0%25%50%75%100%Joseph MartinoVincentCrisantiChloe BrownAbrahamAbbeyToronto Catholic District SchoolBoard Trustee · 2022Toronto City Councillor · 2022Mayor(candidate)·20222022
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
Analysis
Incumbent Vincent Crisanti is in a strong position and it is our assessment that he is very likely to win this race. Crisanti has strong relationships with area conservatives and Etobicoke North appears not to be a strategic priority for any progressive organizations. Chloe Brown, who came in third place in the Toronto mayoral race in 2022 is also running. Chloe is a capable campaigner who has historically spoken to underrepresented issues and ideas in politics. We expect she will elevate this election and help to focus conversations around opportunities for Ward 1 residents who would otherwise have to leave their communities for jobs, housing, etc elsewhere.
Race Timeline
Sep 11, 2026Progress Toronto endorses Ala'a Adib
May 12, 2026Vincent Crisanti registered (incumbent)

Ward 2 — Etobicoke Centre

2022 Election Results
0%25%50%75%100%StephenHolydayThomasYanuzielloCatherine HabusMaryamHashimi
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
High Water Mark(Select recent or best results by candidates in any election)
0%25%50%75%100%StephenHolydayToronto City Councillor · 2022
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
Analysis
While we expect that incumbent Councillor Stephen Holyday will finish in first, this may be the first time in recent memory that a contender strategically and systematically courts a distinct voter bloc from Holyday's. We now anticipate that Katie Andrachuk is the candidate who will play this role, drawing on substantial experience in politics at City Hall and from her career in consulting and public engagement.
Race Timeline
Aug 18, 2026Former City Hall political staffer, Katie Andrachuk, registers to run in Ward 2
Jul 10, 2026Stephen Holyday registered (incumbent)

Ward 3 — Etobicoke—Lakeshore

2022 Election Results
0%25%50%75%100%AmberMorleyMarkGrimesMary MarkovicMarcoValle
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
High Water Mark(Select recent or best results by candidates in any election)
0%25%50%75%100%Amber MorleyTed OpitzAnthonyInternicolaToronto City Councillor · 2022Member of Parliament(Etobicoke Centre) · 2025TorontoCityCouncillorcandidate·2023
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
Analysis
Incumbent Amber Morley defeated former Councillor Mark Grimes in 2022. While Morley has been very active as a Councillor, advancing projects in Ward 3 and being part of significant policy change at City Council, several issues have generated push-back from area constituents, including: the extension of Bloor bike lanes into Etobicoke, the siting of new shelters in Ward 3 by City staff exercising delegated authority, and (to a lesser extent) her support for Mayor Chow's broader agenda. Several former elected officials had been rumored to be considering running against Morley and this turned out to be correct. On June 8, former Etobicoke Centre MP Ted Opitz joined the race. Opitz received 44% of the vote in last year's federal election in Etobicoke Centre and, if any share of that strength follows him, it will make him a major challenger in Etobicoke Lakeshore. Bike lane critic Cody MacRae briefly entered the race, but withdrew before the deadline, leaving Opitz positioned to consolidate the anti-Morley vote.
Race Timeline
Jul 13, 2026Amber Morley registered (incumbent)
Jun 8, 2026Ted Opitz registered

Ward 4 — Parkdale—High Park

Confirmed Open Race
2022 Election Results
0%25%50%75%100%Steve YuenGord PerksChemi LhamoSiri Agrell
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
High Water Mark(Select recent or best results by candidates in any election)
0%25%50%75%100%Debbie KingNadiaGuerreraAdam PhamTrustee (TDSB) · 202220252018
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
Analysis
Councillor Gord Perks is retiring at term's end, leaving Ward 4 an open race. Progressive organizers were expected to consolidate early behind Diana Chan McNally, a longtime advocate and frontline worker in housing and supportive services — an advantage that was undermined when TDSB Trustee Debbie King registered days later. Other credible candidates, including Nadia Guerrera and Adam Pham, have demonstrated double-digit support in past races. A progressive split creates a path up the middle for another candidate. The key variable is whether organizers hold with McNally or King is able to draw resources to her campaign. Observations to date indicate that Chan McNally is mobilizing more resources and that she may be on track to reestablish herself as the clear progressive frontrunner.
Race Timeline
Sep 11, 2026Progress Toronto endorses Diana Chan McNally
May 28, 2026Debbie King registered
Apr 30, 2026Gord Perks announces he will not run for re-election
Apr 30, 2026Nadia Guerrera registered
Apr 30, 2026Diana Chan McNally registered

Ward 5 — York South—Weston

2022 Election Results
0%25%50%75%100%FrancesNunziataChiaraPadovaniGabrielTakang
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
High Water Mark(Select recent or best results by candidates in any election)
0%25%50%75%100%FrancesNunziataChiaraPadovaniDaniel DiGiorgioToronto City Councillor · 202220222025
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
Analysis
All Toronto election watchers are looking at the major rematch brewing in Ward 5. Councillor Nunziata beat Chiara Padovani by a handful of votes in 2022 and Padovani has been doing high-visibility community advocacy work consistently since then (particularly tenant advocacy), keeping her profile elevated. Nunziata has had some significant wins this term (the Weston Loop, for example) and has managed to have a better working relationship with Mayor Chow than many had expected, but is also suffering from issues that came up with the reimagining of the Weston Lions Arena. The wildcard in this race is Daniel Di Giorgio, who has proven to be an effective campaigner in the past and who may well poll in the double-digits (percentage) range this election. We expect he will most effectively court Nunziata's base and that could swing the election towards Padovani.
Race Timeline
Sep 11, 2026Progress Toronto endorses Chiara Padovani
Jul 17, 2026Frances Nunziata registered (incumbent)
Apr 30, 2026Chiara Padovani registered
Apr 30, 2026Daniel Di Giorgio registered

Ward 6 — York Centre

2022 Election Results
0%25%50%75%100%JamesPasternakMike ArkinHope SchrierBasilCanning
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
High Water Mark(Select recent or best results by candidates in any election)
0%25%50%75%100%JamesPasternakCouncillor · 2022
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
Analysis
Councillor Pasternak is an accomplished campaigner and has consistently prioritized his community on issues of city-wide significance. While a strong candidate may hope to define themselves as an alternative, we do not expect that Pasternak will be defeated this election.
Race Timeline
May 25, 2026James Pasternak registered (incumbent)

Ward 7 — Humber River—Black Creek

2022 Election Results
0%25%50%75%100%AnthonyPerruzzaAmandaCoombsChristopherMammoliti
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
High Water Mark(Select recent or best results by candidates in any election)
0%25%50%75%100%AnthonyPerruzzaAmandaCoombsToronto City Councillor · 20222022
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
Analysis
Anthony Perruzza enters the 2026 election for Ward 7 as the frontrunner. In 2022 two other candidates managed to get more than 15% of the vote. If a candidate like Amanda Coombs is able to consolidate more of the vote, this could be one of the strongest competitions in Humber River—Black Creek in recent memory. However, we still believe that Perruzza is in a strong position and most likely safe.
Race Timeline
Jul 30, 2026Anthony Perruzza registered (incumbent)

Ward 8 — Eglinton—Lawrence

2022 Election Results
0%25%50%75%100%Mike ColleDomenicoMaioloEvanSambasivamWendyWeston
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
High Water Mark(Select recent or best results by candidates in any election)
0%25%50%75%100%Mike ColleDanielTrayesToronto City Councillor · 20222021
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
Analysis
Mike Colle is a strong campaigner and seasoned politician who has kept a close eye on his various communities' needs over the last four years. While we will be interested to see if anyone can get above 10% of the vote running against him, we believe he is very safe.
Race Timeline
May 1, 2026Mike Colle registered (incumbent)

Ward 9 — Davenport

2022 Election Results
0%25%50%75%100%AlejandraBravoGrantGonzalesShaker JamalAllieSpencer
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
High Water Mark(Select recent or best results by candidates in any election)
0%25%50%75%100%AlejandraBravoToronto City Councillor · 2022
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
Analysis
Alejandra Bravo had a very strong finish in 2022 with over 70% of the vote and is on track for an even stronger finish this election. We are looking to see if any other candidates will be able to define issues in the ward this election, but expect there will be minimal media interest or attention to the race.
Race Timeline
Jul 17, 2026Alejandra Bravo registered (incumbent)

Ward 10 — Spadina—Fort York

2022 Election Results
0%25%50%75%100%AusmaMalikAprilEngelbergRoccoAchampongPeterGeorge
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
High Water Mark(Select recent or best results by candidates in any election)
0%25%50%75%100%Ausma MalikHusainNeemuchwalaToronto City Councillor ·20222022
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
Analysis
Ausma Malik won Ward 10 in an open election in 2022, getting support and endorsements from several organizations and political leaders. She has been a highly visible champion for Mayor Chow as Deputy Mayor and enters the race as the frontrunner. While some analysts have flagged Ward 10 as a potentially competitive race, we believe that Malik is safe. That does not mean that this will be an uninteresting race, however, and there are several candidates who appear capable of mobilizing volunteers and helping to define local issues.
Race Timeline
Jul 7, 2026Ausma Malik registered (incumbent)

Ward 11 — University—Rosedale

2022 Election Results
0%25%50%75%100%Diana YoonDianne SaxeNorm Di PasqualeRobin BuxtonPotts
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
High Water Mark(Select recent or best results by candidates in any election)
0%25%50%75%100%Mike LaytonDiana YoonHuy LieuToronto City Councillor · 2018Member ofParliament(Spadina—FortYork) · 20192022
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
Analysis
In a move that surprised many, after former Councillor Mike Layton filed to run, incumbent Councillor Dianne Saxe withdrew from the race to contest Ward 14 instead. This move has left Layton the apparent frontrunner and we believe he has very good odds - buoyed further by other candidates withdrawing and endorsing him. The race may still be interesting, however. Former NDP MP candidate Diana Yoon remains in the race and this dynamic may prove newsworthy, even if Layton remains the likely winner.
Race Timeline
Aug 17, 2026Former Councillor Mike Layton registers to run in Ward 11
Jul 15, 2026IntegrityTO account refers readers to Karina Lemke fundraiser event page
May 19, 2026Diana Yoon registered

Ward 12 — Toronto—St. Paul's

2022 Election Results
0%25%50%75%100%JoshMatlowBobMurphyBryan AshworthAntonioCourpuz
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
High Water Mark(Select recent or best results by candidates in any election)
0%25%50%75%100%Josh MatlowToronto City Councillor · 2022
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
Analysis
We expect Matlow will easily carry the 2026 election in Ward 12. With over 84% of the vote in 2022, he is one of the few candidates who could afford to lose half his support and still be in a leading position. Matlow is more likely to redirect supporters and resources to other campaigns in a move that should strengthen his position on Council in the coming term.
Race Timeline
Aug 4, 2026Josh Matlow registered (incumbent)

Ward 13 — Toronto Centre

Polling Data

2026-06-2402550100
  • Chris Moise
  • Curran Stikuts
  • Daniel Tate
2022 Election Results
0%25%50%75%100%Chris MoiseNicki WardCleveland MarshallCarolineMurphy
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
High Water Mark(Select recent or best results by candidates in any election)
0%25%50%75%100%Chris MoiseNicki WardWaliedKhogali AliToronto City Councillor · 20222022Councillor·2018
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
Analysis
Councillor Chris Moise is a first-term councillor elected in 2022 after former Councillor Kristyn Wong-Tam became MPP for Toronto Centre. Moise has been the Mayor's most reliable vote on City Council, by many metrics, but has seen local progressive organizers enlist former director at the 519 Community Centre, Curran Stikuts to run against him. An August 20 endorsement of Stikuts by former Councillor, and current MPP, Kristyn Wong-Tam will buoy his support and put him in a close race with Moise. Complicating the race further for Moise, IntegrityTO's Executive Director Daniel Tate is running. Tate has a substantial online following and has made significant inroads with institutional political organizers critical of Mayor Chow and her supporters on Council. At a minimum, Tate will pull attention and draw media attention to crime, homelessness, community safety, and other issues important to him. There is also a real risk that progressive infighting could suppress Moise and Stikuts' base, providing a unique opportunity for Tate to outflank them both.
Race Timeline
Aug 20, 2026MPP Kristyn Wong-Tam endorses Curran Stikuts over incumbent Chris Moise
Aug 18, 2026Policorner is told by NDP spokesperson that Kristyn Wong-Tam will not run for Councillor in Ward 13
Jul 22, 2026IntegrityTO ED Daniel Tate announces he will run in Ward 13
Jul 20, 2026Chris Moise registered (incumbent)
Apr 30, 2026Nicki Ward registered
Apr 30, 2026Curran Stikuts registered

Ward 14 — Toronto—Danforth

Confirmed Open Race
2022 Election Results
0%25%50%75%100%Denise WalcottPaulaFletcherWali AbroJamesDyson
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
High Water Mark(Select recent or best results by candidates in any election)
0%25%50%75%100%SaraEhrhardtDianneSaxeMaryFragedakisTDSB Trustee, Toronto-Danforth · 2022Toronto City Councillor ·2022MPP · 2022
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
Analysis
Paula Fletcher filed to run, then announced her retirement on August 19, opening the race for Ward 14 for the first time since amalgamation. As of August 20, Sara Ehrhardt, the current area TDSB Trustee, appears to be the frontrunner with ONDP supporters and demonstrating a remarkable ability to gather signatures and file her papers within hours of learning about Fletcher's retirement. Dianne Saxe is likely the next strongest candidate, bringing some name recognition and a campaign machine transplanted from Ward 11 at the last minute. Former Councillor Mary Fragedakis is also running and it will be hard to place her competitive position until we have a sense of the support base she can mobilize. We suspect Erhardt has an early advantage, but that should not be taken for granted with two other very capable and experienced candidates in the race. We hope to have a clearer sense of the race's trajectory by the middle of September.
Race Timeline
Sep 11, 2026Progress Toronto endorses Sara Ehrhardt
Aug 31, 2026IntegrityTO gives X shout-out to Caryma Sa'd: "Toronto - Danforth needs common sense after nearly 25 years of the failed status quo. @Vote4Sad"
Aug 20, 2026TDSB Trustee Sara Ehrhardt registers to run, joined by ONDP MPP Peter Tabuns
Aug 19, 2026Councillor Paula Fletcher reverses course after registering and announces retirement
Jun 1, 2026Susan Chapelle registered

Ward 15 — Don Valley West

2024 Election Results
0%25%50%75%100%RachelChernos LinSheenaSharpAnthony FureySamRobinson
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
High Water Mark(Select recent or best results by candidates in any election)
0%25%50%75%100%RachelChernos LinSheena SharpToronto City Councillor · 2024Councillor·2024
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
Analysis
Rachel Chernos Lin won a convincing victory in the 2024 Ward 15 by-election with a number of groups supporting her as a way of keeping candidate Anthony Furey out of office. We expect that Chernos Lin's focused constituency work and incumbency will help her to consolidate her by-election success and see her winning with an even larger share of the vote.
Race Timeline
Jul 22, 2026Rachel Chernos Lin registered (incumbent)

Ward 16 — Don Valley East

2022 Election Results
0%25%50%75%100%JonBurnsideStephenKsiazekJonathan MousleyColinMahovlich
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
High Water Mark(Select recent or best results by candidates in any election)
0%25%50%75%100%JonBurnsideToronto City Councillor · 2022
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
Analysis
Jon Burnside has had a strong showing in past elections and we expect he will improve on his 2022 numbers this year.
Race Timeline
Jun 2, 2026Jon Burnside registered (incumbent)

Ward 17 — Don Valley North

2022 Election Results
0%25%50%75%100%ShelleyCarrollDarylChristoffCalvin XuAngelaLindow
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
High Water Mark(Select recent or best results by candidates in any election)
0%25%50%75%100%ShelleyCarrollSabrinaZunigaToronto City Councillor · 20222021
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
Analysis
Shelley Carroll is an experienced campaigner who has managed to achieve a vote share above 70% in past elections. Candidate Sabrina Zuniga may be the strongest rival to emerge in some time and we will be watching to see whether her past campaign experience draws in any serious new endorsements and volunteers. If that happens, we will reassess, but we are presently expecting Carroll to carry the election.
Race Timeline
May 4, 2026Shelley Carroll registered (incumbent)
Apr 30, 2026Sabrina Zuniga registered

Ward 18 — Willowdale

2022 Election Results
0%25%50%75%100%Lily ChengMarkusO'Brien FehrDaniel LeeElhanShahban
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
High Water Mark(Select recent or best results by candidates in any election)
0%25%50%75%100%Lily ChengToronto City Councillor · 2022
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
Analysis
Lily Cheng won a tough campaign in 2022, earning 41.7% of the vote. We are tracking Ardeshir Zarezade as a candidate who may take on Cheng's record directly and focus on issues like safety and accountability. However, even with a focused opponent, we do not currently believe that Cheng is at serious risk and believe she will finish with a larger share of the vote this year.
Race Timeline
Jul 27, 2026Lily Cheng registered (incumbent)

Ward 19 — Beaches—East York

Confirmed Open Race
2022 Election Results
0%25%50%75%100%Jennie WordenAdamSmithBradBradfordStevenThompson
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
High Water Mark(Select recent or best results by candidates in any election)
0%25%50%75%100%Nate Erskine-SmithKevinMorrisonJennie WordenAdam SmithMP · 2025TCDSB Trustee ·2022Councillor ·20222022
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
Analysis
Former local MP Nate Erskine-Smith is the clear frontrunner with some polling numbers suggesting he could win with minimal campaigning. Veteran reporter Natalie Johnson is a strong campaigner and she may yet be able to get between 10 and 30% of the vote, but we believe the odds are very low that she can overtake Erskine-Smith.
Race Timeline
Aug 18, 2026Retiring MP Nate Erskine-Smith registers to run
Aug 18, 2026Natalie Johnson releases 'stepping stone' video ahead of Erskine-Smith registration
Jun 16, 2026Toronto Star article suggests Nate Erskine-Smith may run for Councillor
May 20, 2026Jennie Worden registered
May 11, 2026Natalie Johnson registered
Apr 30, 2026James Dann registered

Ward 20 — Scarborough Southwest

2023 Election Results
0%25%50%75%100%ParthiKandavelKevinRupasingheNaser KaidAnnaSidiropoulos
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
High Water Mark(Select recent or best results by candidates in any election)
0%25%50%75%100%ParthiKandavelKevinRupasingheToronto CityCouncillor · 2023City Councillor ·2023
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
Analysis
While Ward 20 was headed towards a safe run for first-term Councillor Parthi Kandavel in early April, recent news stories have upset the status quo and many potential candidates are assessing whether they can run a strong campaign. We are looking to see how the news cycle progresses over the coming months, as this could make or break the race between Kandavel and Kevin Rupasinghe. Rupasinghe has run several times and has built up name recognition and a reliable volunteer base. He came second to Kandavel with less than an 800-vote gap in the 2023 byelection. This race was not high on many organizers' priority lists and depending on how safe other progressive candidates are, Rupasinghe could see substantial volunteer resources materialize.
Race Timeline
Sep 11, 2026Progress Toronto endorses Kevin Rupasinghe
Aug 7, 2026Parthi Kandavel registered (incumbent)
Jun 15, 2026Kevin Rupasinghe registered

Ward 21 — Scarborough Centre

2022 Election Results
0%25%50%75%100%MichaelThompsonMuhammadAyubPaul BeattyKiriVadivelu
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
High Water Mark(Select recent or best results by candidates in any election)
0%25%50%75%100%MichaelThompsonPatienceEvbagharuToronto City Councillor · 2022CityCouncillor(candidate)·2018
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
Analysis
Michael Thompson won a majority of the vote in 2022, running against a challenging media cycle. While Thompson will be less weighed down this election season, we expect to see a strong campaign from Krissan Veerasingam. Krissan is likely to get a number of endorsements and could rally double-digit support. We do not expect Ward 21 to be a priority battleground for key political/labour groups and so it is our current analysis that Thompson remains strongly favored to win.
Race Timeline
Sep 11, 2026Progress Toronto endorses Krissan Veerasingam
Jul 22, 2026Michael Thompson registered (incumbent)

Ward 22 — Scarborough—Agincourt

2022 Election Results
0%25%50%75%100%Nick MantasSergeKhatchadourianBill WuAntoniosMantas
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
High Water Mark(Select recent or best results by candidates in any election)
0%25%50%75%100%Nick MantasSergeKhatchadourianDan LovellDonny MorganToronto City Councillor · 2022CityCouncillorcandidate,Ward22Scarborough-Agincourt·2022MemberofParliament·20252022
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
Analysis
Nick Mantas retained his seat in 2022 after winning the 2021 councillor by-election. While Dan Lovell is running as the apparent progressive challenger with an early labour endorsement, we believe that Mantas is in a strong position to win again in 2026.
Race Timeline
Jul 20, 2026Nick Mantas registered (incumbent)

Ward 23 — Scarborough North

2022 Election Results
0%25%50%75%100%JamaalMyersPhillipFrancisVirginiaJones
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
High Water Mark(Select recent or best results by candidates in any election)
0%25%50%75%100%Shaun ChenHan DongJamaalMyersMember of Parliament · 2025Member of Parliament · 2021Toronto City Councillor · 2022
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
Analysis
Incumbent Jamaal Myers won the 2022 election after incumbent Cynthia Lai passed away. While Myers' showing was much stronger than his runner-ups', the 2026 election will be very different and nothing should be taken for granted this year in Scarborough North. Former Liberal Spadina—Fort York MPP (2014-2018) and Don Valley North MP (2019-2025) Han Dong has registered to run. We believe he is a serious contender and expect a neck-and-neck race. We are watching to see how much support Myers is able to get from progressive volunteers who may or may not be available in numbers with several key races up in the air.
Race Timeline
Jun 17, 2026Han Dong registered
May 19, 2026Jamaal Myers registered (incumbent)

Ward 24 — Scarborough—Guildwood

2022 Election Results
0%25%50%75%100%PaulAinslieVivianParkerHabiba DesaiKeioshaRoss
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
High Water Mark(Select recent or best results by candidates in any election)
0%25%50%75%100%Paul AinslieToronto City Councillor · 2022
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
Analysis
Councillor Paul Ainslie is widely expected to run again. With no strong contenders having registered yet, we expect Ainslie to easily win re-election.
Race Timeline
Jul 29, 2026Paul Ainslie registered (incumbent)

Ward 25 — Scarborough—Rouge Park

2025 Election Results
0%25%50%75%100%Neethan ShanShawnAllenZakir PatelDiannaRobinson
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
High Water Mark(Select recent or best results by candidates in any election)
0%25%50%75%100%Neethan ShanShawn AllenAshan FernandoZakir PatelToronto CityCouncillor · 2025Councillor ·2025CityCouncillor· 2022Councillor(Ward25Scarborough-RougePark)·2025
Registered incumbentRegisteredNot registered
Analysis
Incumbent Neethan Shan has won a seat on City Council twice, but both times in by-elections. In provincial races, he has finished behind Liberal and Conservative candidates. In his successful 2025 by-election, he won with 26.86% of the vote, ahead of the second-place candidate who received 17.52%. If Shan is not able to capitalize on his incumbency and the name recognition afforded by being a Councillor for such a limited time, then there is a very real risk that a strong rival candidate could consolidate liberal and conservative vote blocs to run a close race or even defeat him this year. At present, the strongest contender appears to be former Scarborough Business Association leader Shawn Allen. We are watching to see whether Allen is able to attract volunteers and mount a strong ground game.
Race Timeline
Jul 15, 2026Neethan Shan registered (incumbent)
Apr 30, 2026Shawn Allen registered

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